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Old 10-19-2009, 01:45 PM   #1 (permalink)
Daeva
 
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Greater Output/Crit rate?

Greetings,

I gathered, farmed, and purchased off the auction all weekend long til I had 28 Lesser Accessory Fluxes to work with. Then got all the acid I needed, etc. On Sunday night I headed to the craft house to wrap up the weekend by hopefully making a few Noble Silver Rings that I could sell or craft better items with.

My Handicraft is at 84P .... I made fourteen (14) Silver Rings in a row without one single Greater Output of a Noble Silver Ring.

Is this normal, or did I just have one incredibly bad run of luck?

Thanks!
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Old 10-19-2009, 01:51 PM   #2 (permalink)
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bad luck.

the proc rate is around 20% based on limited data so far, so you'd reasonably expect 2-3 procs in 14 crafts.

droughts happen, though.

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Old 10-21-2009, 01:17 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Bad luck. I have failed to crit 25 times in a row on gold stuff despite being 399.
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Old 10-21-2009, 04:18 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Most of the time I have been finding it cheaper to buy what I need off the broker rather than making it, but there are a few occasions when you get a lucky streak and make up some of your lost money. Sadly though, with all of the undercutting on the broker you can't seem to make a standard living as a crafter.
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Old 10-22-2009, 03:30 PM   #5 (permalink)
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I just crafted 232 (50+50+50+50+32) gold rings, and 0 critical. Yes 0/232.
I am not sure whether I am bugged, I have send petition to NCsoft and waiting for reply.

BTW, this happened after new patch today.

-------------------------

More from friends today after patch:
0/113 in a row (food)
0/76 in a row (chain armor)
0/75 in a row (alchemy)

So now I am pretty sure there is something wrong with craft system after the new patch today.

Last edited by fungi; 10-22-2009 at 03:53 PM.. Reason: Automerged Double-Post.
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Old 10-23-2009, 01:18 AM   #6 (permalink)
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Character: Eshnar
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Race: Asmodians
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I tested Cooking for crits - on a sample size of 400 combines on a gray skill recipe, the crit rate was 22-23%.

The longest streak without a crit was 14 times. But from the stories in this thread, you can and others have experienced longer streaks of 'bad' luck.

The longest streak of back-to-back crits was 3 times.

Hope you have better luck next time!
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Old 10-23-2009, 08:15 AM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fungi View Post
I just crafted 232 (50+50+50+50+32) gold rings, and 0 critical. Yes 0/232.
I am not sure whether I am bugged, I have send petition to NCsoft and waiting for reply.

BTW, this happened after new patch today.

-------------------------

More from friends today after patch:
0/113 in a row (food)
0/76 in a row (chain armor)
0/75 in a row (alchemy)

So now I am pretty sure there is something wrong with craft system after the new patch today.
Can anyone else confirm this?
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Old 10-23-2009, 08:34 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Hit the Lottery?

After reading other posts I feel a bit bad, yet extremely lucky:
=10 Koa Bow attempts=
4 Noble Koa Bows
6 Koa Bows

=4 Worthy Koa Bow attempts=
2 Worthy Noble Koa Bows (back to back, I think)
2 Worthy Koa Bows

Both times I made the attempts, I got up and walked away from the computer because I couldn't bear to watch, lol.

This was this morning, 10/23/2009 ~08:00 EST.

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Last edited by mtw999; 10-23-2009 at 08:41 AM..
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Old 10-23-2009, 08:36 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I'm trending about a 20-25% proc rate in three trades, all second tier.
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Old 10-23-2009, 09:17 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fungi View Post
I just crafted 232 (50+50+50+50+32) gold rings, and 0 critical. Yes 0/232.
I am not sure whether I am bugged, I have send petition to NCsoft and waiting for reply.

BTW, this happened after new patch today.

-------------------------

More from friends today after patch:
0/113 in a row (food)
0/76 in a row (chain armor)
0/75 in a row (alchemy)

So now I am pretty sure there is something wrong with craft system after the new patch today.
All I can say is ouch, that has got to be the worst streak I ever seen.
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Old 10-23-2009, 10:53 AM   #11 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lerxt View Post
bad luck.

the proc rate is around 20% based on limited data so far, so you'd reasonably expect 2-3 procs in 14 crafts.

droughts happen, though.
Don't be discouraged though, droughts may happen, the reverse is true as well!

I'm sure plenty of you have already had a lucky streak at least once or twice; it's just that nobody comes onto the forums and 'brags' about how they nailed 5+ HQ's in a row.
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Old 10-25-2009, 01:06 PM   #12 (permalink)
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Fungi did you ever get a reply back from NC soft regarding your problem? I am interested to find out i had something similar happen to me I am at 199 and after crafting 75 rosequartz earrings I had 0 procs after the last patch.
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Old 10-25-2009, 02:14 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Aion Wiki and fellow mates report that crafting with FULL DP increases crafting proc rate significantly or just increases it but some portion.

For me, sometimes I feel it helped, sometimes I don't, but I craft with full DP all the time.

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Old 10-25-2009, 10:50 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fungi View Post
I just crafted 232 (50+50+50+50+32) gold rings, and 0 critical. Yes 0/232.
I am not sure whether I am bugged, I have send petition to NCsoft and waiting for reply.

BTW, this happened after new patch today.

-------------------------

More from friends today after patch:
0/113 in a row (food)
0/76 in a row (chain armor)
0/75 in a row (alchemy)

So now I am pretty sure there is something wrong with craft system after the new patch today.
I'm almost sure that both silver earrings, maybe rings, gold necklaces, gold rings all have extremely low proc rates compared to others. I crafted about 20 silver earrings with no procs, yet i've proced 3/4 rose quartz earrings and several other items. There is a reason that these noble items rarely show up in the broker.
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Old 10-26-2009, 03:10 AM   #15 (permalink)
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Nope, it is just luck. I used to hit 3 gold rings once with 5 crafts.

though 0/243 is well, astronomical odds.

Considering that the record of winning streaks ever in a casino on roulette is higher then that should give you an impression something is wrong.

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